[Oz-envirolink] Global Carbon Emissions Soaring 'Out of Control'

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CLIMATE CHANGE NEWS TODAY
Global Carbon Emissions Soaring 'Out of Control'
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November 11, 2006
OVERVIEW & COMMENTARY by Dr. Glen Barry, Climate Ark

The journal Nature reports "Global carbon emissions are now
growing by 3.2% a year... That's four times higher than the
average annual growth of 0.8% from 1990-99... We are not on any
of the stabilization paths." We are well beyond
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of
the emissions levels needed to prevent damaging climate change.
International negotiations are lagging. China currently
contributes some 16% to global emissions, but accounts for 40%
of the growth in world emissions. What in the hell is going on
here? Clearly humanity as a whole must start acting soon -- it's
urgent. It's beyond urgent. It is life threatening. The greatest
test of humanity ever. Without immediately placing all
intellectual, financial and societal resources at the disposal
of those studying climate change science, developing sufficient
policy responses, and those advocating for the necessary social
change; the Earth is going to burn. All countries must in
earnest participate in negotiations to set mandatory carbon
emission caps for each nation based upon many factors including
each country's wealth, past emissions, and potential to grow
uncontrollably. We need to start yesterday, and the U.S. and
Australia must end their criminal defense of fossil fuels.
g.b.

Comments:
http://www.climateark.org/blog/2006/11/global_carbon_emissions_soarin.asp
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RELAYED TEXT STARTS HERE:

ITEM #1
Title: Carbon tally shows growing global problem
World summary of emissions reveals continuing gains.
Source:  Copyright 2006, Nature
Date:  November 10, 2006
Byline:  Nicola Jones

Global carbon emissions are now growing by 3.2% a year,
according to results presented at an Earth science conference in
Beijing on 9 November. That's four times higher than the average
annual growth of 0.8% from 1990-99.

"We are not on any of the stabilization paths," says Michael
Raupach, a carbon-cycle scientist with Australia's Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) in
Canberra, who presented the Global Carbon Project results.

The result is not particularly surprising — there have been many
reports of countries missing their national emissions targets.
But the tally, using data up to 2005, drives home how far away
we are from projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) of the emissions levels needed to prevent
damaging climate change.

Missing targets

"What's really striking is the rate of growth in places like
China," says Raupach. According to Chinese figures, China
currently contributes some 16% to global emissions, but accounts
for 40% of the growth in world emissions.

China's vice premier Hui Liangyu yesterday told the meeting that
China, like all countries, suffers from severe weather events
that are in part a result of global warming. "The Chinese
government attaches great important to global environmental
change and actively copes with the related problems," he wrote
in a letter to the meeting delegates.

China plans to reduce the amount of its 'energy intensity',
defined as the emissions per person per unit of GDP, by 20% by
2010, although it has no official emissions targets.

Sea-level rise is also at the upper end of IPCC projections,
adds John Church, who works at CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric
Research in Hobart, Tasmania. Analyses published in 2006 have
shown that sea level is currently rising at 1.5-2 mm per year,
which is in the upper half of the IPCC value of 1-2 mm per year.
The rate of the rise is accelerating.

This is expected to lead to an 88 cm rise in sea level by 2100.
"We have to start acting soon — it's urgent," says Church.
Raupach's results, he says, are "really striking".

New insights

The Global Carbon Project, part of the larger Earth System
Science Partnership (ESSP) that is convening in Beijing this
week, consists of some 200 researchers worldwide who synthesize
and interpret available data.

"The ESSP's role is to put things together, and suddenly you get
new insights," says Will Steffen from the Australian National
University, Canberra.

The data for global emissions comes mainly from the Carbon
Dioxide Information Analysis Center, based at the Oak Ridge
National Laboratory in Tennessee. "We are in a place where we
can 'nowcast' the carbon cycle," says Raupach. "We're about to
publish this for 2005 and we can continue to do that live."

Raupach also told the meeting that, to stabilize atmospheric
carbon dioxide levels at 550 parts per million, the world must
release no more than 750 gigatonnes of extra carbon into the
atmosphere. Even this — which is often regarded as a politically
realistic target — is expected to lead to global warming of more
than 2 degrees Celsius on pre-industrial temperatures. The
current level is 380 ppm.

Meeting such a target will be extremely tough: emissions from
fossil-fuel burning and land-use change currently top 9
gigatonnes a year.


ITEM #2
Title:  Global growth in carbon emissions is 'out of control'
Source:  Copyright 2006, Independent (UK)
Date:  November 11, 2006
Byline:  Steve Connor

The growth in global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil
fuels over the past five years was four times greater than for
the preceding 10 years, according to a study that exposes
critical flaws in the attempts to avert damaging climate change.

Data on carbon dioxide emissions shows that the global growth
rate was 3.2 per cent in the five years to 2005 compared with
0.8 per cent from 1990 to 1999, despite efforts to reduce carbon
pollution through the Kyoto agreement.

Much of the increase is probably due to the expansion of the
Chinese economy, which has relied heavily on burning coal and
other fossil fuels for its energy.

Dr Mike Raupach, chair of the Global Carbon Project, an
international collaboration of researchers who compiled the
latest figures, warned yesterday that emissions were spiralling
out of control.

"This is a very worrying sign. It indicates that recent efforts
to reduce emissions have had virtually no impact on emissions
growth and that effective caps are urgently needed," he said.

Current levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are 380 parts
per million (ppm), about 100ppm higher than before the
Industrial Revolution 200 years ago. Some computer models
predict damaging and irreversible climate change if carbon
dioxide levels rise above 450ppm or 500 ppm.

The rate of increase of emissions suggests it may soon be
impossible to avoid some of the worst-case scenarios, said Josep
Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project. "On
our current path, we will find it extremely difficult to rein in
carbon emissions enough to stabilise the atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentration at 450ppm, and even 550ppm will be a
challenge," he said. "At some point in the near future, we will
miss the boat in terms of achieving acceptable levels."
Based on current trends, carbon dioxide concentrations are
likely to increase to 500ppm this century. The last time the
planet experienced levels as high as 500ppm was about 20 or 40
million years ago, when sea levels were 100 metres higher than
today.

The Stern report earlier this month warned that the uncontrolled
release of greenhouse gases could lead to a rise in average
global temperatures of up to 5C by 2100 - about the same
temperature difference between now and the last ice age.

Scientist have warned that global temperatures will continue to
rise for many decades after carbon dioxide concentrations have
stabilised due to the environmental inertia of the world's
climate system.

Dr Peter Falloon, a climate impact scientist at the Met Office's
Hadley Centre, said the latest findings did not augur well for
attempts at averting climate change.

"It's not what we want or hope to see. The concern comes from
the fact that the greater the emissions are now, the harder it
will be to bring them down in the future," he said. "It takes 30
or 40 years to realise the change in carbon dioxide emissions.
It highlights how important it is to take quick and effective
action now."

Professor Bill McGuire, director of the Benfield Hazard Research
Centre in London, said: "This is more very bad news. We need a
60 to 70 per cent cut in emissions, but instead, emission levels
are spiralling out of control. The sum total of our meagre
efforts to cut emissions amounts to less than zero."


ITEM #3
Title: Greenhouse gas emissions grow more rapidly
Source:  Copyright 2006, Financial Times
Date:  November 10, 2006
Byline:  Fiona Harvey

Greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing four times as fast
as in the 1990s, giving added urgency to international talks on
climate change.

Research carried out for Unesco found on Friday that the rate of
increase in emissions from burning fossil fuels between 2000 and
2005 was four times that between 1990 and 2000.

The research will be presented in Nairobi, where representatives
from governments across the world are meeting to discuss the
Kyoto protocol on climate change, which requires developed
countries to cut emissions.

The accelerated rise is a result of rapid growth in developing
economies such as China, India and Brazil, as well as the
failure of developed countries such as the US to mitigate their
greenhouse gas output. Even in countries such as the UK, which
is on target to meet its Kyoto commitment to cut emissions by
2012 by 12.5 per cent compared with 1990 levels, emissions have
been rising in recent years.

Despite efforts among some countries, such as those in the
European Union, to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the global
growth rate was 3.2 per cent in the five years to 2005 compared
with 0.8 per cent in the period 1990 to 1999, according to data
from the Global Carbon Project.

Paul Crutzen, professor of chemistry at the Max Plank Institute
for Chemistry in Germany and a Nobel Prize winner, said: “The
jump in emissions is remarkable. One would expect a smoother
transition but it seems there has been a tremendous shift in the
past five years. The lower rate in the 1990s was most likely due
to the collapse of the communist regime. Unfortunately, once
emissions go up it’s very hard to bring them down again.”

The rate of increase will make it more difficult to hold levels
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere below 550 parts per million,
cited by the recent Stern review on climate change as the limit
of safety for the climate.

Ministers meeting in Nairobi will discuss ways of extending the
Kyoto protocol beyond 2012, when current provisions expire, and
to bring developing countries within the scope of mandatory
emissions cuts.

The US and Australia are the only developed countries to have
rejected the treaty. But some expect the US stance to soften
following this week’s Democratic victory in the Congressional
elections, while the language of the Australian government has
also changed.