[Oz-envirolink] Climate report: `Highway to extinction'

Tue Apr 3 11:33:37 EST 2007

Comment- One of the issues that seems to be a counter-effect to Greenhouse
gas induced global warming is of course particulate pollution - and as
things clean up - then this counter-effect will diminish too, in effect
unmasking the greenhouse gas effect - and making it worse.  Obviously the
solution is to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions NOW - so when
the pollution clears - there are less green house gasses.

Are we really ready for such action?

HS

Climate report: `Highway to extinction'
Dire predictions includes loss of species, increasing scarcity of
water The Associated Press
Updated: 7:43 a.m. ET April 1, 2007

WASHINGTON - A key element of the second major report on climate
change being released Friday in Belgium is a chart that maps out the
effects of global warming with every degree of temperature rise,
most of them bad.

There's one bright spot: A minimal heat rise means more food
production in northern regions of the world.

However, the number of species going extinct rises with the heat, as
does the number of people who may starve, or face water shortages,
or floods, according to the projections in the draft report obtained
by The Associated Press Some scientists are calling this degree-by-degree
projection a "highway to extinction."

It's likely to be the source of sharp closed-door debate, some
scientists say, along with a multitude of other issues in the 20-
chapter draft report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. While the wording in the draft is almost guaranteed to
change at this week's meeting in Brussels, several scientists say
the focus won't.

The final document will be the product of a United Nations network
of 2,000 scientists as authors and reviewers, along with
representatives of more than 120 governments as last-minute editors.
It will be the second of a four-volume authoritative assessment of
Earth's climate released this year. The last such effort was in 2001.
University of Victoria climate scientist Andrew Weaver said the
chart of results from various temperature levels is "a highway to
extinction, but on this highway there are many turnoffs. This is
showing you where the road is heading. The road is heading toward
extinction."

Weaver is one of the lead authors of the first report, issued in
February.

While humanity will survive, hundreds of millions, maybe billions of
people may not, according to the chart - if the worst scenarios
happens.

`Major extinctions around the globe'

The report says global warming has already degraded conditions for
many species, coastal areas and poor people. With a more than 90
percent level of confidence, the scientists in the draft report say
man-made global warming "over the last three decades has had a
discernible influence on many physical and biological systems."
But as the world's average temperature warms from 1990 levels, the
projections get more dire. Add 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit -- 1 degree
Celsius is the calculation scientists use - and between 400 million
and 1.7 billion extra people can't get enough water, some infectious
diseases and allergenic pollens rise, and some amphibians go
extinct. But the world's food supply, especially in northern areas,
could increase. That's the likely outcome around 2020, according to
the draft.

Add another 1.8 degrees and as many as 2 billion people could be
without water and about 20 percent to 30 percent of the world's
species near extinction. Also, more people start dying because of
malnutrition, disease, heat waves, floods and droughts - all caused by
global warming. That would happen around 2050, depending on the
level of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.
At the extreme end of the projections, a 7- to 9-degree average
temperature increase, the chart predicts: "Up to one-fifth of the
world population affected by increased flood events ... "1.1 to 3.2
billion people with increased water scarcity" ..."major extinctions
around the globe."

Despite that dire outlook, several scientists involved in the
process say they are optimistic that such a drastic temperature rise
won't happen because people will reduce carbon dioxide emissions
that cause global warming.

"The worst stuff is not going to happen because we can't be that
stupid," said Harvard University oceanographer James McCarthy, who
was a top author of the 2001 version of this report. "Not that I
think the projections aren't that good, but because we can't be that
stupid."

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