[Oz-envirolink] Australia changes spots...Rudd at Bali and Beyond

[hugh spencer]

Origtinally posted by Phillip Sutton in Greenleap

       http://www.crikey.com.au

From: the Crikey.com 26 November 2007 Squatters email.

Hamilton: Rudd at Bali and Beyond

Clive Hamilton, Author of "Scorcher:The dirty politics of climate change",
writes:

       When Kevin Rudd announces to the plenary session of the UN climate
change conference in Bali in two weeks' time that Australia will ratify the
Kyoto Protocol he will receive an ovation like no other in his life, one
that will  reverberate in headlines around the world.

       Rarely has a Prime Minister been granted the opportunity to become a
celebrated world leader within weeks of being elected. If Rudd can
translate  the cachet Bali will give him into an active role helping to
broker the next  climate treaty, he could carve out for himself a position
of global leadership.  The former diplomat will instinctively understand
the importance of this both  for Australia and his personal standing.

       It is expected that the Bali conference will agree to a mandate to
negotiate a  global agreement to succeed the first stage of the Kyoto
Protocol, which  expires in 2012. The process is likely to culminate at the
Conference of the  Parties in Copenhagen in December 2009. Given the
increased scientific  certainty about the causes and impacts of global
warming, and the relentless  rise in greenhouse gas emissions, a new treaty
agreed in Copenhagen will  have a global significance vastly beyond that of
the Kyoto Protocol of 1997.

       Such is the accumulation of resentment and frustration at Australias
climate  obstructionism under Howard that the rest of the world will view
the election  of a pro-Kyoto government with enormous relief. Australians
travelling  abroad will no longer find themselves apologising for their
countrys stance  on global warming.

       The Howard Government has frequently claimed that Australia
contributes  only 1.4 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, as if
that fact  absolved us of responsibility. In all other spheres the former
foreign minister  Alexander Downer was fond of claiming that Australia
"punched above its  weight"; yet when it came to climate change he always
wanted to take us  down to the flyweight division.

       In fact, Australias role in international climate change
negotiations has been  an important obstacle to progress. Our government
has been at the centre  of attempts to form coalitions to oppose faster
action, including the Umbrella  Group and informal alliances with OPEC
countries and the United States. It  has also attempted to undermine
support for the Kyoto process by trying to  draw various nations into
alliances that could become alternatives (AP6 and  APEC).

       Most importantly, Australias repudiation of the UN process has
provided  cover for the Bush Administrations intransigence. Ratification of
the Kyoto  Protocol will leave the Bush Administration isolated on the
world stage in the  same way that vigorous action by city mayors and state
governments has  left it isolated within the United States. Australian
ratification will not force  Bush to capitulate, but it will raise the
stakes on climate change among the  candidates bidding to succeed Bush.

       Australian ratification will therefore have enormous symbolic
significance.  The Rudd Government will find the international community
grateful and  forgiving. Our return to the international fold will raise
expectations that we  will adopt a new cooperative spirit, in which we
balance our own interests  (both economic and environmental) with those of
the world. In other words, a  Rudd Government will need to reject the
narrow and self-centred national  interest doctrine formulated early in the
Howard years, a doctrine that  placed single-minded emphasis on short-term
trade and investment.

       The shift in approach  effectively a return to that mapped out in
the Hawke  years  will cause ripples in Canberra, and especially in DFAT
(Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade)  which over  the last decade has
become dominated by people unable to distinguish  between the public
interest and the political interests of the government of  the day.

       The nations gathered in Bali, represented by some of the worlds most
sophisticated diplomats, will pay close attention to whether Mr Rudds
declaration of change is matched by the behaviour of our delegation in the
closed sessions and back-room meetings where the real business is
transacted.

       One of the more scandalous aspects of Australias participation in
Conferences of the Parties has been the participation of fossil fuel
lobbyists  in the official delegation. No other country allows the industry
with most to  lose from emission cuts to play a formal role in negotiating
international  agreements. These members of the self-styled "greenhouse
mafia" are  accustomed to pulling the strings and being consulted on every
contentious  point at the international negotiations.

       Ejecting these lobbyists from the official delegation would be a
significant  practical and symbolic move by the Rudd Government. It would
signal to the  world community that the new administration is serious about
its  commitment beyond ratification.

       It would also signal to the business community that it wants to
listen to  progressive rather than reactionary voices. The business
community has  been realigning itself over the last two years and will
adapt quickly to the  Rudd climate change agenda. But it is important for
the new government to  dispatch the greenhouse mafia, which was Howards
closest corporate ally.

       Over subsequent months, the new foreign minister will find it
necessary to  sideline some of the DFAT negotiators too. Instead of
maintaining the  traditional stance of neutral public servants, they have
become implicated in  the dirty dealing and obstructionist efforts of the
Howard Government and  are viewed with deep suspicion by diplomats abroad.
Some public servants  who have played leading roles in prosecuting the
Howard Governments  position have taken lucrative jobs with fossil fuel
corporations, a fitting  reward for jobs well done.

       The remaining climate sceptics in the Labor Party (such as Gary Gray
and  Martin Ferguson) will need to be firmly side-lined. There is a danger
that the  Rudd Governments approach will be too heavily influenced by the
Garnaut  report, expected in the middle of 2008. Ross Garnaut is a
conservative  economist and businessman who will probably be recommending
caution at  a time when urgency and boldness are needed.

       It is no exaggeration to say that the way the Rudd Government deals
with  climate change will make or break it. Howard will be judged harshly
by the  historians for his resolute refusal to face up to the dominant
economic and  moral challenge facing the nation.

       The science is becoming more alarming by the month, and so are the
impacts of global warming itself. The demand for decisive action can only
intensify over the next three years; it will require far-sighted policies
to bring  about a wholesale transformation of the nations energy economy, a
structural change on a par with that brought about by the dismantling of
tariff  protection.

       The Howard Government has been punished by the electorate for its
climate  scepticism. Yet the expectation that Labor will take resolute
action can only  intensify. Any government that fails to tackle Australias
greenhouse gas  emissions with sufficient vigour will be seen to be craven
and guilty of  sacrificing the national interest to the demands of the
industries of the past.

................
Howard's legacy sounds terribly like the US, doesn't it...HS









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