No subject

Interesting article - but with the usual 'fizzle' at the end - "combatting
climate change is all very well - great idea - so long as it doesn't impact
(or even improves) my lifestyle"

blech!

H

..............

[Admitedly, computer models are only as good as the information
assessed. So if certain factors are overlooked or underestimated,
discrepancies between prediction and outcome could be off the scale.
But for the most part they seem to have done their job.]
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Are Global Warming Models Accurately Predicting Our Future? New Study
Reveals the Answer - A Galaxy Interview
http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2008/04/are-global-warm.html

There are a lot of competing theories out there when it comes to
climate change. It seems that for every expert opinion there is an
opposite opinion, and for every piece of evidence there are contrary
views. Politicians, scientists and environmentalists alike can't seem
to agree on all of the facts. But what about all of these computerized
climate models coming out? Are they reliable and accurate? Can we
trust the predictions these models generate?

In the recent study "How Well do Coupled Models Simulate Today's
Climate?" which will be published in the Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, meteorologists analyzed a wide range of
existing models. Co-authors Thomas Reichler and Junsu Kim from the
Department of Meteorology at the University of Utah researched how
well climate models actually do their job in simulating climate by
comparing the output of the models against observations for present
climate. Using this method, the scientists analyzed about 50 different
national and international models that were developed over the past
two decades at major climate research centers in China, Russia,
Australia, Canada, France, Korea, Great Britain, Germany, and the
United States, including the very latest model generation used for the
2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The results of this study conclude that current climate models are
quite accurate in terms of present climate, and can therefore act as
valuable tools in predicting future trends. If so, that would mean
that the models used for the recent IPCC report are realistic. Of
course, unknown future variables, such as how we choose to respond to
climate change, could change these projections, hopefully favorably.
However, the data we have now is reliable, concludes the study. The
research also found that most of the existing models project a global
warming trend of about 7 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 100-year
period. Such a dramatic rise in temperature would likely have a
devastating impact on many forms of life, including humans.

But what about the various claims from some experts that the Earth
isn't getting warmer, or the even more contrary claim that we may
actually be entering into a cooling phase in the Earth's climate
cycle? The Daily Galaxy interviewed the lead author of the study,
climate expert Thomas Reichler, to hear what he has to say about it.
According to him, anyone claiming that the Earth isn't getting warmer,
or that it's perhaps even getting colder, simply isn't looking at the
actual data, and very likely isn't even a real scientist.

"I don't think there is any scientific evidence to support such an
idea. People may be coming up with those kind of ideas, but I don't
think it's coming from scientists," Reichler told the Daily Galaxy.
Reichler pointed out that most scientists agree that climate change is
a real and critical issue, because that is what the scientific
evidence accumulated thus far suggests. Climate change is expected to
cause a wide range of weather and temperatures fluctuations including
some areas becoming colder, but the overall trend is warming.
According to Reichler, people can have an opinion that climate change
isn't real, but that doesn't change the reality of it.

"There is absolutely no doubt that the world is in a warming phase,"
Reichler told the Daily Galaxy, "and that conclusion is supported by
99% of all serious scientists, so I'm certainly not alone in that
certainty. "

But what about those who claim that climate change is part of an
inevitable climate cycle that has little to do with humans? Is global
warming a man-made phenomenon, or part of an inevitable climate cycle?
According to Reichler, nearly all scientific evidence to date suggests
that humans do play a role in the issue.

"Of course, there are some other contributing factors but the main
factor involved is the many human activities that significantly
increase levels of greenhouse gases."

The Daily Galaxy asked Reichler what he believes average people can do
on a day-to-day practical level to make a positive difference.
Reichler says that, on the most basic level, people can make a
significant difference by consuming less fossil fuel and by making our
homes and lifestyles more energy efficient.

"Drive smaller cars, drive less, and insulate your house well. Things
like this can make a difference."






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